This project aims to simulate a game of the "Temur Rhinos" Magic: The Gathering (MTG) deck archetype and analyze the probability of having a certain number of lands in play by turn 3. The simulation takes into account the number of lands and cyclers in the starting deck and runs multiple game simulations to gather statistical data. The probability analysis is performed through heatmaps, which visually represent the results.

• Just
• Python 3 (version 3.11.4 recommended)

To install all dependencies, run the following command:

just setup

• just rhinos: Run the temur_rhinos.py script and save the output to a CSV file.
• just graph: Generate a heatmap for the CSV file generated by just rhinos.
• just graph-rhinos: Combines just rhinos and just graph into one command.

In the temur_rhinos.py script, you can customize the following parameters for the simulation:

# Number of cyclers and lands to try in the simulation
N_CYCLERS_TO_TRY = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4]
N_LANDS_TO_TRY = [26, 25, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18]

# Number of games to simulate
N_GAMES = 10000

# Number of turns to simulate (e.g., turn 3)
N_TURNS = 3

You can adjust these parameters according to your needs to explore different scenarios.

• I have not factored in the impact of including Ketria Triome (a tapland) in the number of lands. Plan to do this later.

• I have not factored in the impact of using Fire//Ice to draw an extra card on turn two to help hit land drops. Plan to do this later.

• I have not considered the impact of Gemstone caverns Luck shenanigans in any of these scenarios.

• Currently designed to only provide accurate stats until turn 3. (see notes for can_play_cascade in src/temur_rhinos.py)

1. The temur_rhinos.py script simulates a game by creating a deck based on the specified number of cyclers and lands.
2. The simulation runs for the specified number of games (e.g., 10,000) and records the game state after each turn (up to turn 3).
3. The simulation logs are saved to a CSV file named game_log.csv.

Below are example heatmaps generated by the just graph-rhinos command.

These heatmaps visually represent the probabilities of having a certain number of lands in play by turn 3, considering various combinations of starting deck composition.

Feel free to explore different deck compositions and simulation parameters to analyze the impact on the game outcomes.

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.