This program simulates a probabilistic decision maker and a naive decision maker to see whose choice is better. For more information see here :

http://simula67.wordpress.com/2014/02/13/is-an-understanding-of-probability-a-super-power/

First player (naive) picks a random choice from the list of choices available. Second player (probablistic) chooses the choice which maximises his net expected benefit.

Naive player wallet : 166.0 Probabilistic player wallet : 786.0

Naive player wallet : 490.0 Probabilistic player wallet : 490.0

Naive player wallet : 636.0 Probabilistic player wallet : 704.0

I am yet to see an iteration where the naive player beats the probabilistic player.