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This repo refers to a previous version of the preprint and is now outdated. The up-to-date data, model code, and results, can be found at https://github.com/epidemics/COVIDNPIs/tree/paper
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Modelling the effectiveness and burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19
Accompanying data and code for Brauner et al (2020), 'The effectiveness and perceived burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission: a modelling study with 41 countries'. [Code upload to follow.]
Daily data on active nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 in 41 countries. We also include three response variables: total confirmed case count, current known active case count, and total attributed death count.
Data on symptomatic testing regimes was sourced from the Oxford CGRT database. Data on cases and deaths are from the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering repository.
These data have been manually checked, but please exercise your own validation before acting on it.
Data
We include two datasets:
- daily_npi_data.csv : the modelling dataset, daily coverage of the interventions active in each country
- npi_source_data.csv : including links to the announcement of each NPI in each country.
NPIs included
| NPI | Description |
|---|---|
| Mask wearing | One or both of: 1) a country has implemented a policy of requiring mask usage among the general public, sometimes limited to certain domains like a duty to wear masks in public transportation and supermarkets 2) survey reports indicate that over 60% of people were wearing masks in public. |
| Symptomatic testing | Testing is available to anyone showing COVID-19 symptoms (as defined by the country). In a few countries, testing is even available to people without symptoms. |
| Gatherings < 1000 | A country has set a size limit on gatherings. The size limit is at most 1000 people (often less) and gatherings above the maximum size are disallowed. For example, a ban on gatherings of 500 people or more would be classified as “gatherings limited to 1000 or less” but a ban on gatherings of 2000 people or more would not. |
| Gatherings < 100 | A country has set a size limit on gatherings. The size limit is at most 100 people (often less) and gatherings above the maximum size are disallowed. |
| Gatherings < 10 | A country has set a size limit on gatherings. The size limit is at most 10 people (often less) and gatherings above the maximum size are disallowed. |
| Some Businesses Suspended | A country has specified a few kinds of customer-facing businesses that are considered “high risk” and need to suspend operations (blacklist). Common examples are restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and gyms. By default, businesses are not suspended. |
| Most Businesses Suspended | A country has suspended the operations of many customer-facing businesses. By default, customer-facing businesses are suspended unless they are designated as essential (whitelist). |
| School Closure | A country has closed many or all schools. (Note that this was accompanied by closing universities in more than 75% of cases in our data.) |
| Stay Home Order | An order for the general public to stay at home has been issued. This is mandatory, not just a recommendation. Exemptions are usually granted for certain purposes (such as shopping, exercise, or going to work), or, more rarely, for certain times of the day. In practice, a stay-at-home order was often accompanied by other NPIs such as businesses closures. However, a stay-at-home order does not in principle entail these other NPIs, but only the (additional) order to generally stay at home except for exemptions. |
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