based on http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html
The idea is by joel spolsky
- Gather evidence break tasks up into small tasks no more then 16 hours
make a list of tasks with one estimation and one real time column per person then calculate velocity = est/real
I now fill in an excel sheet of estimation and real times, that calculates the velocity. import the velocities and use these as source material. for step 2
When you schedule a new thing:
- create the tasks, and give an estimate
- simulate the future by dividing every task estimate by random velocity of person
- do this 100 times
plot the estimates.