based on http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html

The idea is by joel spolsky

1. Gather evidence break tasks up into small tasks no more then 16 hours

make a list of tasks with one estimation and one real time column per person then calculate velocity = est/real

I now fill in an excel sheet of estimation and real times, that calculates the velocity. import the velocities and use these as source material. for step 2

When you schedule a new thing:

1. create the tasks, and give an estimate
2. simulate the future by dividing every task estimate by random velocity of person
3. do this 100 times

plot the estimates.