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info7374_predict_stockprice's Introduction

INFO7374_Predict_StockPrice

Stock Price Prediction for NVIDIA stocks

Objectives:

Sl No Status Artifacts Description
1 Google Slides Presentation slides
2 1_NVDA_vs_Competitors.ipynb Focus on the stock you pick and their competitors
Report summary statistics of the training period you select and plot the kernel density
3 2_Feature_Mart.ipynb Please use the features/factors you take and discovered
e.g., FRED, Fama-French website, ADS, AR, CAPM, momentum factors, volume, price/return lags, etc. to construct a feature database
The target variable Y can be either price or return
Frequency could be either daily or monthly
4 3_Feature_Importance.ipynb Virtualize the feature importance and feature selection process using regression based approach
Ridge regression, LASSO, Elastic Net or LARS vs decision tree based approach (random forest, XGBoost)
5 4_Model_Training.ipynb Proposed and train 3-6 models by feeding in the features you prepared in step 2
Compare the model performance using RMSE between the fitted Y and actual Y in testing period
6 5_Benchmark_Study.ipynb Include one benchmark study that uses GARCH or Kalman Filter
7 Compose of trading rules that uses buy-and-hold, long-short, or day trade
8 Generate trading signals using the above 3-6 models. Compare their PnL

Replication Instructions

❗ Date Range to incldues

  • Train Range = 2022-01-01 ~ 2023-07-31
  • Predict Range = 2023-08-01 ~ 2023-11-01

📓 All notebooks are Colab compatible.

Local Setup

  1. Downloading Metadata Files
    make download

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