Comments (7)
fasiha/ebisu.js#23
I suggested that, but it seems that LMSherlock and @fasiha just kinda weren't very interested.
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Ebisu author here š fasiha/ebisu.js#23 has the discussion and links to the results. Ebisu v3 release candidate didnāt do well! For separate reasons, Iāve been working on alternatives to that version and have something I like more (see fasiha/ebisu#66) and Iām happy to support rerunning the benchmarks on that version.
I am ashamed to admit it but I havenāt made time to properly understand how the benchmarks here work, and I havenāt made time to figure out how to run FSRS etc. on the benchmarks I personally use to compare Ebisu versions. Part of the reason is, Ebisu and its benchmarks handle not just binary quizzes but also binomial and noisy-binary and passive quizzes; and itās not been obvious how to adapt those quiz styles to various other probabilistic SRS systems to ensure weāre doing apples-to-apples comparisons.
(Background. I use a focal loss-ified log likelihood for all these various quiz typesāsee the link above and references thereinābecause the standard log loss/binary cross entropy (https://github.com/open-spaced-repetition/srs-benchmark/?tab=readme-ov-file#metrics) was ranking ābadā Ebisu models higher than āgoodā ones, i.e., ones I preferred and thought were more accurate.)
I know I should just wrap up working on Ebisu v3 and release it so folks can do benchmarks without being confused what version to run š sorry! Iām hoping to release v3 thisā¦ year š¤
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Part of the reason is, Ebisu and its benchmarks handle not just binary quizzes but also binomial and noisy-binary and passive quizzes; and itās not been obvious how to adapt those quiz styles to various other probabilistic SRS systems to ensure weāre doing apples-to-apples comparisons.
We can benchmark any algorithm as long as it:
- Uses interval lengths and grades, no other info (like text)
- Outputs a number between 0 and 1 that can be interpreted as a probability
Also, Anki has 4 grades (answer buttons), so previously I suggested using different values of q0
for each grade. Idk if that suggestion makes a lot of sense, I only have surface-level knowledge of Ebisu and Bayesian stuff is pretty arcane for me.
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Oh, perfect! Thanks for sharing that thread. I like Ebisuās approach in principle, still curious if its empirical deficits can be overcome. I like that its theory more directly handles issues like, say, the fact that if weāre targeting 90% retrievability, we should expect to miss 10% of items, even if their underlying stabilities are identical. Most algorithms handle that with an ad-hoc solution (eg FSRSās low-pass back to default stability), and maybe thatās fine, but Bayesian stats seem like a better approach in principle (tho evidently perhaps not in practice!)
Iāll leave this issue open since Ebisu is still not in the official benchmark results for this repo but feel free to close if you like, since I got what I wanted! :)
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if weāre targeting 90% retrievability, we should expect to miss 10% of items, even if their underlying stabilities are identical. Most algorithms handle that with an ad-hoc solution (eg FSRSās low-pass back to default stability
I'm not sure what you're trying to say. That just because a user pressed Again, it doesn't necessarily mean that the value of stability should be decreased? Our findings suggest that stability can drop very significantly in case of a memory lapse. Very crudely, post-lapse stability (PLS) as a function of previous S is like this:
Of course, the actual formula is more nuanced, this is without the retrievability and difficulty dimensions and also without the constant. I just simplified it as much as I could to focus purely on the relationship between S and PLS. Once LMSherlock is less busy, we will perform an interesting analysis to try to find weaknesses in our formulas for S and PLS. But I don't expect to find any flaws with PLS=f(S).
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The PR is here: #11. It doesn't perform well, so I haven't merged it. And the dataset has been updated, so the PR is outdated. If you're interested in the result, I would rerun the benchmark when I'm available. But I need to check whether my implementation is correct at first. It requires the help from @fasiha.
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@fasiha we're working on FSRS-5, and I will make another Reddit post about benchmarking, so if you are still interested, you can come back to implementing Ebisu in the benchmark.
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Related Issues (20)
- Inclusion of any of the boosting models HOT 23
- [Feature Request] Add a Transformer HOT 15
- collect bad cases from Anki users' dataset HOT 9
- visualize metrics over time HOT 2
- [Feature Request] Train a gradient-boosted decision tree HOT 36
- Some weird first forgetting curves HOT 11
- [Feature request] Add confidence intervals for all metrics HOT 9
- accidental post
- Revlogs parsing HOT 12
- [Question] A ārawā version of the tiny_dataset.zip HOT 3
- [Feature Request] Add a BiLSTM HOT 2
- [Feature request] Add the ACT-R model (see paper) HOT 21
- [TODO] Add DASH and its variants HOT 13
- [Feature request] A quantitative measure of cheating HOT 9
- Write an article about binned RMSE and cheating calibration metrics HOT 7
- [Question] Some more details from a ML perspective HOT 8
- Cannot download dataset from huggingface HOT 4
- Neural network scheduler HOT 42
- Add MCC
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