The main file here is realtime_r0.ipynb. In this notebook, we explore fitting a epidemiological model to predict the rate of spread of Covid-19 in Colorado. The rate of spread of Covid-19 is characterized by the reproductive rate R₀. Here, we try to estimate R₀ using the realtime R₀ model from Bettencourt, Ribeiro 2008. This is Bayesian method that not only provides an estimate of R₀ , but also provides us with a probability distribution over likley values of R₀.

Carefully analyzing the uncertainty in predictions if R₀ is essential to making accurate future predictions about the rate of spread of Covid-19. Please see realtime_r0.ipynb for more details on the model. Feel free to make a PR if have ideas or suggestions to improve the model.