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Future of Coffee Distribution

### Jim Wynne, Morgan Scafidi, Shane Jepson

Climate change will greatly alter growing conditions for the world's favorite drug: coffee. Changing weather patterns, temperature, natural disasters and more will devastate current growing zones and shift where our beloved stimulant will come from. This project seeks to map the effects of the shifting climate on the distribution of coffee around the world using satellite climate data. For scale, we will be looking at Colombia, Mexico, and the Carribean.

What regions will emerge as superior coffee growing zones as climatic conditions change? Since coffee needs a very particular formula to grow successfully, how will changing climate affect the quality of coffee in the future?

Datasets - https://search.earthdata.nasa.gov/search?m=6.71484375!-106.3125!3!1!0!0%2C2 https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=form

(Polygon data) https://search.earthdata.nasa.gov/search?p=C1621100535-LPDAAC_ECS&polygon[0]=-116.85938%2C33.04414%2C-109.6875%2C21.79449%2C-102.9375%2C17.15401%2C-94.78125%2C15.18532%2C-88.3125%2C12.37291%2C-86.0625%2C8.99802%2C-79.03125%2C6.18561%2C-79.45313%2C1.40451%2C-75.9375%2C-0.14232%2C-70.17188%2C-2.25163%2C-68.48438%2C1.82637%2C-65.8125%2C0.98265%2C-63.28125%2C3.79506%2C-60.1875%2C8.01367%2C-62.01563%2C19.26332%2C-76.35938%2C24.46628%2C-95.48438%2C24.46628%2C-102.51563%2C30.0911%2C-116.85938%2C33.04414&m=15.046875!-124.5234375!2!1!0!0%2C2

elevation model, climate data such as precipitation, temperature, current coffee distribution map,

Data Findings so far: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-coffee

  • optimal temperature range is 64°–70°F (18°C–21°C). It can tolerate mean annual temperatures up to roughly 73°F (24°C).
  • over 86°F (30°C) can severely damage coffee plants, stunting growth, yellowing leaves, even spawning stem tumors
  • coffee needs an annual rainfall of 1500 to 3000 mm
  • Depending on the variety, it will take approximately 3 to 4 years for the newly planted coffee trees to bear fruit.
  • 60 - 90 inches of annual rainfall. Below 30 inches is very stressful and likely to cause low yields of small beans Methodology - Plot climate analysis maps similar to lab4. Combine muliple layers of climate analysis to produce where conditions will increase suitability and decrease suitability. After successfully completing the suitability analysis, we can grab statistics on which areas have a higher average of suitable land for optimal coffee growing.

Expected Outcomes - Most areas currently suitable for coffee growing will decrease suitability. Small areas of higher elevation and higher latitude with ideal temperature, sunshine, and rainfall conditions will increase in suitability.

Things to consider: make sure that measurements are in metric system units.

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Contributors

morganscafidi avatar jwynneuo avatar

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