manifoldmarkets / manifold Goto Github PK

This is in the "thanks for your Manifold purchase" email.

PS: Fixed in #218

Did this happen for all markets using the old formula? https://manifold.markets/Pepe/will-i-live-south-of-14th-street
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974085799303843890

— Pepe, from Discord

description: Manifold Markets lets you create a market on any question. Sign up in 30 seconds and start trading on politics, sports, or anything that interests you.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/inIaqWgezzcMByz7f9QvGjjcKyQRA1qhSKrleOO21jY/https/manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Manifold Markets — A market for every question
type: link
url: https://manifold.markets/Pepe/will-i-live-south-of-14th-street

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974366080552304703

— Eharding, from Discord

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973375916816343040

— Eharding, from Discord

When you load any page that has a "logged in" and "logged out" version, the server-side rendering will always produce the logged-out version, because it has no idea whether you are logged in or out. This produces extremely janky looking UI and hurts performance. The most glaring offender is simply the home page.

There would be two reasonable-sounding approaches to fix this:

1. Turn off server-side rendering for pages with dynamic content (basically every page.)

This kind of concerns me because it seems like it's clearly not the Next.js happy path. They don't just have a config that says "don't do it anymore." We would have to reorganize a bunch of stuff, like this guy.

2. Actually get the correct information on the server so that it can render a correct page.

This seems like it shouldn't be very hard. Next.js provides a getServerSideProps API where you can populate e.g. user data during SSR. The trick is getting the user data there in the first place. This package does it, but it's not clear to me if we want to adopt it wholesale. Obviously we would need to use cookies instead of local storage for the session information, but that's fine.

(Note: There's also a phenomenon where, as a kind of performance optimization, we cache the user info that we saw on last page load in local storage, and use it optimistically next time you load the app, for the first "logged in" view you see. This is weird because there's a very visible lag and you can see your balance suddenly change because of this basically every time you open Manifold. If we did this step number 2, we would basically be undoing that performance optimization, so we would also eliminate this jankiness.)

On the question cards that appear on the frontpage feed, the top of the card looks like this:

It would definitely look nicer if the bet data on the right was vertically aligned with the question asker on the left, instead of being randomly kind of almost-aligned.

(Sorry James!)

So u have to press the back button twice to go back to the market
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974063237341519892

— SirSalty, from Discord

Work around is to do the commit from the command line or restart vscode.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974840993146892320

— Yev, from Discord

markets/noumena/which-activities-will-take-place-at displays $984 bet, but if you look at the trade history, it should probably be $184 bet (someone bought and immediately sold $400, jacking volume up by $800?)
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973343067228745738

— noumena, from Discord

description: ALL correct answers will be chosen. So don't just bet on capture the flag, bet on everything which is at less than 1 / number of activities! (Yes, you can make a profit by deciding to run an activity, submitting that answer as a bet, and then making that activity happen. This is in fact a desired outcome.)

Betting closes 6 days prior to the event.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Which%20activities%20will%20take%20place%20at%20Bay%20Area%20Summer%20Solstice%202022%3F&metadata=May%208%20%E2%80%A2%20Closes%20Jun%2013%2C%206%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%24984%20bet&creatorName=Rachel%20Shu&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa-%2FAOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg%3Ds96-c&creatorUsername=noumena', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/aMaYG69VfqYxpwenZApEfJx6qCR6SwWrpB22QZGNTvw/%3Fquestion%3DWhich%2520activities%2520will%2520take%2520place%2520at%2520Bay%2520Area%2520Summer%2520Solstice%25202022%253F%26metadata%3DMay%25208%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closes%2520Jun%252013%252C%25206%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%2524984%2520bet%26creatorName%3DRachel%2520Shu%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Flh3.googleusercontent.com%252Fa-%252FAOh14GgakM4ip6bShp4cqgoZZllrdWYfTh2VOuG82_FPQg%253Ds96-c%26creatorUsername%3Dnoumena/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Which activities will take place at Bay Area Summer Solstice 2022?
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/noumena/which-activities-will-take-place-at

my second comment got labelled with the first trade which seems wrong? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-instacart-file-to-ipo-in-2022
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974470306179743754

— jack, from Discord

description: 88% chance. Resolves YES if in 2022 Instacart files to go public (e.g. files S-1). Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.

Context: Instacart is one of the 10 most valuable startups according to https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies, but cut its valuation 40% from $39B to $24B amidst the recent tech selloff, whi...
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Will%20Instacart%20file%20to%20IPO%20in%202022%3F&probability=88%25&metadata=May%208%20%E2%80%A2%20Closes%20Jan%201%2C%207%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%24275%20bet%20%E2%80%A2%20%23Economics&creatorName=Jack&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252FJackC%252Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096&creatorUsername=jack', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/sVO8a_xj-EEkSNK6QAbumYjKI4j_3thkAMDKMDxOAwU/%3Fquestion%3DWill%2520Instacart%2520file%2520to%2520IPO%2520in%25202022%253F%26probability%3D88%2525%26metadata%3DMay%25208%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closes%2520Jan%25201%252C%25207%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%2524275%2520bet%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520%2523Economics%26creatorName%3DJack%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%252Fv0%252Fb%252Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%252Fo%252Fuser-images%25252FJackC%25252Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg%253Falt%253Dmedia%2526token%253D89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096%26creatorUsername%3Djack/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Will Instacart file to IPO in 2022?
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-instacart-file-to-ipo-in-2022

markets/fold/improperly-resolved/markets
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973960749615570995

— Eharding, from Discord

description: Curated by Luna Nova. Collection of markets that are resolved contrary to their description and the outcome.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/inIaqWgezzcMByz7f9QvGjjcKyQRA1qhSKrleOO21jY/https/manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Improperly Resolved
type: link
url: https://manifold.markets/fold/improperly-resolved/markets

Not sure if this is wanted or not
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974068099416485939

— palebone, from Discord

But I'm hoping that now Zapier is set up to send our fbb-bug reports into Github Issues. Let's see if attachments work too!
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973016523323088966
Attached:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973016522643603506/screenshotr_2022-5-2T8-51-40.png

— akrolsmir, from Discord

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973016522643603506/screenshotr_2022-5-2T8-51-40.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/973016522643603506/screenshotr_2022-5-2T8-51-40.png', 'width': 984, 'height': 732}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973016522643603506/screenshotr_2022-5-2T8-51-40.png

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974360518607380510
Attached:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974360517789499432/unknown.png

— Yev, from Discord

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974360517789499432/unknown.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/974360517789499432/unknown.png', 'width': 1216, 'height': 775}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974360517789499432/unknown.png

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974839858860273777
Attached:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857442619392/unknown.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857971068928/unknown.png

— Yev, from Discord

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857442619392/unknown.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857442619392/unknown.png', 'width': 713, 'height': 124}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857442619392/unknown.png

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857971068928/unknown.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857971068928/unknown.png', 'width': 394, 'height': 225}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974839857971068928/unknown.png

Right now we just let people upload arbitrarily gigantic avatars, and they do -- multiple-megabytes ones sometimes.

You might think, this doesn't matter much, because image loading is basically non-blocking, but it matters for at least three reasons:

• Loading and decompressing big images is CPU-intensive.
• When avatars are loading, they are competing with other loading things for bandwidth. So for example if you have a huge avatar, it's loading while you are also trying to load the list of markets, or whatever.
• It is lame to have avatars slowly pop in over a period of many seconds.

So when we store avatars we should store appropriately sized and compressed versions.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973603676700676156

— Eharding, from Discord

The charities use a slug for their unique ID that is computed at runtime as a function of their display name, so you can't change their display name without de-associating them from all their transactions. (see e.g. #144)

Charities should just have a unique ID field in charity.json.

For example, I don't recommend naming yourself "markets". I mentioned this on Discord and I'm putting it here for posterity because we should really fix this and not forget it.

As discussed, I favor the fix "put user profiles under a separate URL path."

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974831722686455819

— Eharding, from Discord

markets/SG/will-us-inflation-be-more-than-04-f
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973960814031691776

— Eharding, from Discord

description: Resolved YES. Resolves to CPI report ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm ), scheduled to be released on May 11, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET.

May 11, 9:03am: One-month percent change in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for March 2022: 1.2% https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04122022.pdf
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Will%20U.S.%20inflation%20be%20more%20than%200.4%25%20from%20March%20to%20April%202022%3F&probability=85%25&metadata=May%202%20-%20May%2011%20%E2%80%A2%20Closed%20May%2011%2C%2012%3A29pm%20%E2%80%A2%20M%24756%20bet%20%E2%80%A2%20%23Inflation%20%23Economics&creatorName=S%20G&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa%2FAATXAJzAQGU1L6qXJWYbQYKpSQZtSNp6z-Z4lumqRdid%3Ds96-c&creatorUsername=SG', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/WohfRIbxx_aMtU1cy55YRWMlYsBYp1kZi8UYZe1xyPo/%3Fquestion%3DWill%2520U.S.%2520inflation%2520be%2520more%2520than%25200.4%2525%2520from%2520March%2520to%2520April%25202022%253F%26probability%3D85%2525%26metadata%3DMay%25202%2520-%2520May%252011%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closed%2520May%252011%252C%252012%253A29pm%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%2524756%2520bet%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520%2523Inflation%2520%2523Economics%26creatorName%3DS%2520G%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Flh3.googleusercontent.com%252Fa%252FAATXAJzAQGU1L6qXJWYbQYKpSQZtSNp6z-Z4lumqRdid%253Ds96-c%26creatorUsername%3DSG/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.4% from March to April 2022?
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-us-inflation-be-more-than-04-f

https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-manifold-markets-still-be-aliv. Austin is recorded as saying the same thing 6 times.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974479606184824872

— myreddice, from Discord

description: Manifold Markets lets you create a market on any question. Sign up in 30 seconds and start trading on politics, sports, or anything that interests you.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/inIaqWgezzcMByz7f9QvGjjcKyQRA1qhSKrleOO21jY/https/manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Manifold Markets — A market for every question
type: link
url: https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-manifold-markets-still-be-aliv.

Specifically:

• The main sidebar React component is rendered even on small widths, and then hidden with CSS; when you click the profile button to have the sidebar slide out from the left, it's actually a second, new sidebar.
• The "right sidebar" (e.g. the charity pages have this) is rendered twice at all widths, and then CSS decides whether to show it on the right or on the bottom.

These sidebars are not trivial components so this is obviously silly if not necessary.

At least in the case of the "right sidebar", it should be easy to just render this once and use CSS to control the position (e.g. flex wrap it down.) For the "main sidebar" it may or may not be easy, because I don't know how the slider component we're using works. The "main sidebar" also has different options on mobile.

When you load for example the homepage feed, it will first load "most stuff", and only afterward load your positions in each market, so it can write them underneath the buttons. This would be OK, except that when they load, they take up new vertical space, so everything moves around and it's distracting.

Either the positions should load in synchronously with the rest of the information, or the layout should be made so that filling in the information about positions doesn't move feed items up and down.

markets/bcongdon/which-will-be-the-top-3-most-wanted
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974725302330744832

— ben_, from Discord

description: See the options in the survey link here: https://stackoverflow.blog/2022/05/11/stack-overflow-2022-developer-survey-is-open/
Previous survey results: https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey

This market resolves equally among the top 3 most "wanted" languages, as reported in the SO developer report, which has been typically released in July/Au...
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Which%20will%20be%20the%20top%203%20most%20%22wanted%22%20programming%2Fscripting%2Fmarkup%20languages%20in%20the%202022%20StackOverflow%20developer%20survey%3F&metadata=May%2013%20%E2%80%A2%20Closes%20Jul%202%2C%206%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%24253%20bet%20%E2%80%A2%20%23technology&creatorName=Ben&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa-%2FAOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA%3Ds96-c&creatorUsername=bcongdon', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/hq-GU65DQVTYWdXJTq-dE7TH5M3KUZ7AEpkZXVyG588/%3Fquestion%3DWhich%2520will%2520be%2520the%2520top%25203%2520most%2520%2522wanted%2522%2520programming%252Fscripting%252Fmarkup%2520languages%2520in%2520the%25202022%2520StackOverflow%2520developer%2520survey%253F%26metadata%3DMay%252013%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closes%2520Jul%25202%252C%25206%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%2524253%2520bet%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520%2523technology%26creatorName%3DBen%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Flh3.googleusercontent.com%252Fa-%252FAOh14GhNf21x93pt4uam3fXie3D3QYySjAUyPxE6TdOkwnA%253Ds96-c%26creatorUsername%3Dbcongdon/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Which will be the top 3 most "wanted" programming/scripting/markup ...
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/which-will-be-the-top-3-most-wanted

markets/tag/FreeMarketAbuse?s=newest
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974372585028583434

— Eharding, from Discord

description: Manifold Markets lets you create a market on any question. Sign up in 30 seconds and start trading on politics, sports, or anything that interests you.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/inIaqWgezzcMByz7f9QvGjjcKyQRA1qhSKrleOO21jY/https/manifold.markets/logo-cover.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Manifold Markets — A market for every question
type: link
url: https://manifold.markets/tag/FreeMarketAbuse?s=newest

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974489597134372916

— Michael W., from Discord

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974208349140844624

— noumena, from Discord

#361 - <@845581203628490762>: bug: Analytics page broken. Apart from Google Analytics section, the other sections are completely blank. I also can't select the other tabs in each section (e.g. Daily/Monthly tabs under Active users; Weekly is selected by default and the others are clickable, but nothing happens).
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918236290439335936/972199507804696636

On smaller widths, the left/right margin on the page disappears. On some pages this is maybe OK (e.g. pages like the homepage feed, where there is just one big vertical column) but it looks particularly odd on pages with multiple-column layouts, like the explore feed when it's still in two-column mode. (The input at the top looks weird to have zero margin too.)

I would suggest fixing all pages to always have a small left/right margin at all widths.

Some notes after the conversation today

Squiggle could be most useful for large-scale estimation tasks. But these would require more investment, so it might be interesting to see if Squiggle can be useful for small-scale tasks and improvements, like distribution support, before attempting to do larger scale tasks

Small scale

1. Adding support for distributions

This would look like manifold being able to ask continuous questions, like "What will AMF's cost-effectiveness be in 2025?". One could do this using some number of bins (like Hypermind). But a better way to do this might be using distributions.

This would require a way to extrapolate from distributions into bets. But I think that this is possible. In particular, if a market resolves to x, we can look at what users predicted the cummulative probability of "at least x being reached would be". These quantities would be p1=cdf1(x), p2=cdf2(x), p3=cdf3(x), etc. Per Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors, we can calculate the bets corresponding to those probabilities, as well as the resulting market price. This allows us to infer the bets automatically.

I think this would still require some thought to specify that enough that it can be programmed. But I'm probably up for thinking about it, maybe in exchange for you taking your AMM code and packaging it up as an independent package, or out of the goodness of my heart.

2. Adding support for prediction functions

This might look like: "If the market hasn't resolved yet at time t move the market probability to Laplace(t,0) at time t". This would just allow users to predict market price. It becomes more interesting when users are doing this for distribution questions, but it is still cute for binary or multiple choice questions.

3. Adding support for combination markets

I'm not sure what term @quinn-dougherty used for this. But this would involve setting the market probability and/or the resolution of a market as a combination of the market probabilities/resolution of other markets, and maybe some external data APIs.

E.g., consider something like "will Ukraine sue for peace". Its probabilities might be informed by 10 other markets referring to the situation in Ukraine. One of the good literature pieces on this is Future Indices, which looks at how to decompose abstract questions into clusters of more specific questions.

Galaxy brain ideas

Eventually, we might want to estimate many, many things at once, and Squiggle would be great for that. This might look like: Creating a squiggle function to predict whether all heads of state are replaced, as a function of many different indicators. Or like predicting all Our World In Data charts. This is trickier, and its unclear whether Manifold might want to have large-scale tournaments, or whether the betting interface is an scalable way to think about eliciting distributions.

We use Firebase Cloud Functions today, mostly for things that we can't trust the client for (user balance modifications; referencing Stripe, email, and other secret keys). However, it's bad that to do any server-based work we have to drop into Firebase Cloud Functions; it adds a pretty big layer of friction to development. FCF is bad because:

• Slow to test
  • Have to enter a bunch of command line commands correctly to spin up
  • Doesn’t hot reload
• Even more annoying to deploy
  • Needs to remember to go do something right after committing
  • Not in lockstep with our Git code
• Untyped?
  • Seems to pass through api-call.ts which breaks the typing

The nicest thing about FCF is the built-in authentication that works with Firebase Auth, which allows the function to act on behalf of a particular user. We could just build this ourselves using tokens/cookies. Here are some examples:

1. https://blog.logrocket.com/implementing-authentication-in-next-js-with-firebase/
2. https://colinhacks.com/essays/nextjs-firebase-authentication
3. https://github.com/gladly-team/next-firebase-auth

These use the client Firesbase lib instead of the Admin SDK but it's unclear to me what functionalities on the Admin SDK we actually need; I think we could still use the Admin SDK in Vercel, if necessary.

(I'd happily pay a M$ 20K bounty just for this, fwiw)

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973368615531335760

— Yev, from Discord

If you click between any other page (e.g. the home page) and the leaderboards page, you will see right away that the sidebar moves left and right, which looks weird. It should visually stay put when you navigate around the site.

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974786957953617950
Attached:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974786957320265768/unknown.png

— Yev, from Discord

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974786957320265768/unknown.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/974786957320265768/unknown.png', 'width': 260, 'height': 540}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/974786957320265768/unknown.png

(From nmehndir on Discord)
Apart from Google Analytics section, the other sections are completely blank. I also can't select the other tabs in each section (e.g. Daily/Monthly tabs under Active users; Weekly is selected by default and the others are clickable, but nothing happens).
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/918236290439335936/972199507804696636

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973747084417200188
Attached:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973747083582517310/unknown.png

— akrolsmir, from Discord

thumbnail: {'url': 'https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973747083582517310/unknown.png', 'proxy_url': 'https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/943628693958459462/973747083582517310/unknown.png', 'width': 1438, 'height': 1050}
type: image
url: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/943628693958459462/973747083582517310/unknown.png

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973762249623736320

— Eharding, from Discord

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/973376149935771659

— Eharding, from Discord

https://manifold.markets/agrippa/can-you-make-mana-profits-simply-by-c301ab0cf7a7

A market you bet in has been resolved!

Your investment was M$ -8.

Your payout is M$ -8.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974375178064773120

— jack, from Discord

description: Resolved CANCEL. I will not actually test this so resolution will just be based on my judgement
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Can%20you%20make%20Mana%20profits%20simply%20by%20buying%20YES%20on%20every%20market%20every%20day%3F&probability=29%25&metadata=May%204%20-%20May%2012%20%E2%80%A2%20Closed%20May%2012%2C%203%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%24166%20bet&creatorName=agrippa&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fagrippa%252Fsparkylrac.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D3c298b7f-3a80-46fa-9a9c-137fe6958dc1&creatorUsername=agrippa', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/lQFqq9sMVw0ddubkH52q_iJGona4__9CqbupxaAvJjI/%3Fquestion%3DCan%2520you%2520make%2520Mana%2520profits%2520simply%2520by%2520buying%2520YES%2520on%2520every%2520market%2520every%2520day%253F%26probability%3D29%2525%26metadata%3DMay%25204%2520-%2520May%252012%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closed%2520May%252012%252C%25203%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%2524166%2520bet%26creatorName%3Dagrippa%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%252Fv0%252Fb%252Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%252Fo%252Fuser-images%25252Fagrippa%25252Fsparkylrac.png%253Falt%253Dmedia%2526token%253D3c298b7f-3a80-46fa-9a9c-137fe6958dc1%26creatorUsername%3Dagrippa/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Can you make Mana profits simply by buying YES on every market ever...
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/agrippa/can-you-make-mana-profits-simply-by-c301ab0cf7a7

markets/MetaculusBot/will-someone-born-before-2001-live
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974121922818355301

— dglid, from Discord

description: 61% chance. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=Will%20someone%20born%20before%202001%20live%20to%20be%20150%3F&probability=61%25&metadata=May%2012%20%E2%80%A2%20Closes%20Jan%201%2C%204%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%240%20bet&creatorName=Metaculus%20Bot&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252FMetaculusBot%252Fmetaculus.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Dbf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6&creatorUsername=MetaculusBot', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/jyjG2p2reOiOKu8fVdF3nEUIy-RIX6HxXND_J65k06w/%3Fquestion%3DWill%2520someone%2520born%2520before%25202001%2520live%2520to%2520be%2520150%253F%26probability%3D61%2525%26metadata%3DMay%252012%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closes%2520Jan%25201%252C%25204%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%25240%2520bet%26creatorName%3DMetaculus%2520Bot%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%252Fv0%252Fb%252Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%252Fo%252Fuser-images%25252FMetaculusBot%25252Fmetaculus.png%253Falt%253Dmedia%2526token%253Dbf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6%26creatorUsername%3DMetaculusBot/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-someone-born-before-2001-live

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/what-will-be-the-next-country-to-jo
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974364423995138079

— Yev, from Discord

description: If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A.
thumbnail: {'url': 'https://manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png?question=What%20will%20be%20the%20next%20country%20to%20join%20NATO%3F&metadata=Feb%2023%20%E2%80%A2%20Closes%20Feb%2024%2C%205%3A59am%20%E2%80%A2%20M%241%2C057%20bet%20%E2%80%A2%20%23World%20%23Geopolitics%20%23NATO&creatorName=Bolton%20Bailey&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252FBoltonBailey%252Fsandpile.gif%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103&creatorUsername=BoltonBailey', 'proxy_url': 'https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/Pomk3LWqUbQIWSFCVbyR0VXaKZKdPlObJZR0UuZhjes/%3Fquestion%3DWhat%2520will%2520be%2520the%2520next%2520country%2520to%2520join%2520NATO%253F%26metadata%3DFeb%252023%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520Closes%2520Feb%252024%252C%25205%253A59am%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520M%25241%252C057%2520bet%2520%25E2%2580%25A2%2520%2523World%2520%2523Geopolitics%2520%2523NATO%26creatorName%3DBolton%2520Bailey%26creatorAvatarUrl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%252Fv0%252Fb%252Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%252Fo%252Fuser-images%25252FBoltonBailey%25252Fsandpile.gif%253Falt%253Dmedia%2526token%253D0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103%26creatorUsername%3DBoltonBailey/https/manifold-og-image.vercel.app/m.png', 'width': 1200, 'height': 630}
title: What will be the next country to join NATO?
type: article
url: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/what-will-be-the-next-country-to-jo

https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/943628693958459462/974077151093608538

— Eharding, from Discord

When I try to change my user name in /profile, it changes back shortly after unfocusing the input.

At medium widths, before the sidebar is replaced with the bottom bar, there can be some ugly visual problems with it. The logo is not centered, my name is cut off, and the hamburger menu contents are all jammed against the left edge.