Simple pronostics for Euro 2024 football cup based on Bradley-Terry and some past data. See also https://github.com/jbudynek/rugby2023

• Fill out input_data/uefa-data-euro24.csv with most up to date results;
• In conf.py, fill out ALL_GAMES with the games you want a pronostic for, and TITLE with the title you want for the graph that will be generated;
• Run 01_make_games_list.py then 02_bradley_terry.py then 03_pronostics_from_bt.py
• See in the terminal for easy to read pronostics, and see in boxplots/ for a nice graph.

Results: I found the right winner! All in all, 28 good pronostics out of 51 games so a total success rate of 54.9%.

TODO for next time: find better data source for past games, and find out how to handle draws in a meaningful way.

Results: I got 2 out of 2 predictions right! All in all so far, 27 out of 50 so a success rate of 54%.

Results: I got 3 out of 4 predictions right! That's 75%. All in all so far, 25 out of 48 so a success rate of 52%.

Results: I got 7 out of 8 predictions right! That's 87.5%. All in all so far, 22 out of 44 so an even 50% success rate.

Well it was not a huge success. Round 1: 8 out of 12 (67%). Round 2: 4 out of 12 (33%). Round 3: 3 out of 12 (25%)!!! All in all, 15 out of 36 so only 42% good pronostics. I guess there were many draws, which we don't use well in modeling, and also don't predict well. Let's hope we do better in the next stages!