jaypinho / the-fed-project Goto Github PK

Set up separate tables to include:

1. the various voting and non-voting members of the FOMC
2. the tenure of their time on the dot plot
3. links to statements and other public issuances they've made along with a scoring system (hawkishness-dovishness and/or explicit interest-rate predictions they've given publicly, in which case the latter would be used more heavily in an eventual correlation model)

Then develop an algorithm to match projections with those actual people.

Like this: http://equitablegrowth.org/must-read-torsten-slok-db-expect-more-hawkish-fedspeak/

For articles like this, for example: http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2015/10/brainard-drops-a-policy-bomb.html

This would, by implication, mean that the statement link should always link to the actual statement if possible.

That way I can catalog every single speech, even if it's almost exactly the same text as an earlier one.

Alongside the Fed's own projections, add optional lines or dots for market-based projections of the interest rate.

To enable users to quickly evaluate the general recent lean of each member. Perhaps allow filtering by currently voting members as well.

As in: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/42888591/d3-dot-plot-with-horizontal-rows-of-dots-like-federal-reserves-prediction-plot

Similar to the Twitter list of Fed-watchers that exists now, create a curated feed of FOMC governors speaking about future interest rates (perhaps along with a score or rating judging how they feel about where it's headed).

E.g. https://twitter.com/MNIFedWatch/status/648605610934599680

Tentative structure below.

Tables

People (FOMC governors / members)

• Name
• Affiliated Fed bank (or governorship)
• DOB
• Bio
• Start date
• End date

Terms

• Start Date (null if all year)
• End Date (null if all year)
• Person ID
• Voting or Non-Voting (probably superfluous, if this entire table contains only voting terms)

Statements

• Person ID
• URL
• Summary of statement
• Lean of statement (hawk, dove, etc.)
• Publication date
• Statement date

1. Scatterplot by date projection was made. Y-axis is interest rate projections, x-axis is months into the future. Actual rate included for reference as well.

2. Scatterplot by fulfillment date of projection. Y-axis is interest rate projections, x-axis is months into the past (i.e. 18 months ago, the rate predicted for now was X). Actual rate included for reference as well.

3. 3D chart. X-axis is projection date, y-axis is projected interest rate, and z-axis is projection fulfillment date.

4. Scatterplot of difference between projections and actual as time until fulfillment increases/decreases. X-axis is time between projection and fulfillment, y-axis is difference between projected rate and actual rate for fulfillment date.

5. Line chart of projected rates over time. X-axis is fulfillment dates, y-axis is projected interest rates from a set period of time prior to the fulfillment dates (i.e. the last projection before the fulfillment date, or 3 projections prior to the fulfillment date).

They can receive email alerts letting them know how they're doing each time the Fed meets again and sets the interest rate. They can compete with their friends, with the Fed's voting and non-voting members, etc.