This project tries different betting strategies against NFL games over the period 1978 to 2009. None of them produce a positive outcome against a 5% betting cost with p=.95.

We DID find profitable strategies but only when applied to years like 1978—2000. And then we found out that these strategies had been published in 2000.

Data for outcomes and lines from: http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html

This chart shows transitive (a beat b, then b beat c, bet on a beating c following week).

This project is mature. You cane use it as a starting point for your research. Help is requested and will be accepted if you can:

• Improve import scripts / documentation
• Use those updated scripts and update the database
• Better document and contribute more betting strategies that are well known

• J. Golec, M. Tamarkin. The Degree of Inefficiency in the Football Betting Market. 1992. (especially page 321)
• M. Dixon, S. Coles. Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market. 1996.

• You can find data to correlate NFL game dates to game weeks at: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1991/games.htm