Future Projections
Here were the three things that each needed some kind of tactic for their projection:
• A person's earnings into the future
• Avg & Maximum US-wide SSA Wages tables
• SSA Bendpoints (largely based on cost of living adjustments (COLA) multiples?)
Earnings:
Manual projection: the user inputs each future year manually. No extrapolation calculations on our end.
New Parameters: None, but the earnings record must be changed to allow entry for future years.
Pros: No calculations on our end; we’re not responsible for any mistakes
Cons: Is only as accurate as the user’s predictions
Tabular Extrapolation: we use the values we got from from the trustee report, which specify predicted increases in average wages, to extrapolate the user’s future wages from existing records.
New Parameters: the year from which to extrapolate future data - this will commonly be the most recent year in which the user has earnings, but may differ in the case that the user has years of unusual earnings not suitable to extract from.
Pros: Uses well-researched values provided by an unaffiliated organization; puts very little burden on the user
Cons: Computation intensive; puts very little burden on the user – and thus, makes us seem most responsible for inaccuracies.
Manual Extrapolation: a mix of Manual Projection and Tabular Extrapolation: uses user defined percentages to extrapolate future values from existing records.
New Parameters: the year from which to extrapolate future data; a table of percentage values
Pros: Gives control to the user while taking the burden of calculation away from them
Cons: As computation intensive as Tabular Extrapolation; is only as accurate as the user’s predictions; most likely to utterly confuse an ill-qualified user
Static Extrapolation: like tabular extrapolation, but uses a single, static value to calculate Wage Growth. Note: this number may be selected from a set of options, or we may allow manual entry.
New Parameters: the year from which to extrapolate user data; a percentage value to use for yearly increase
Pros: Least susceptible to “noise” and attempts to be overly clever in predictions; easy to understand
Cons: May sacrifice too much accuracy for simplicity; if the percentage may be manually entered, is only as accurate as the user’s predictions.
Average Wages & Maximum Earnings:
Tabular Extrapolation: use our stored wage growth values to extrapolate future years of average wages from the last known year.
New Parameters: None
Pros: Uses well-researched values provided by an unaffiliated organization; puts very little burden on the user
Cons: Computation intensive; puts very little burden on the user – and thus, makes us seem most responsible for inaccuracies.
Static Extrapolation: like tabular extrapolation, but uses a single, static value to calculate Wage Growth. Note: this number may be selected from a set of options, or we may allow manual entry.
New Parameters: a percentage value to use for yearly increase
Pros: Least susceptible to “noise” and attempts to be overly clever in predictions; easy to understand
Cons: May sacrifice too much accuracy for simplicity; if the percentage may be manually entered, is only as accurate as the user’s predictions.
Manual Extrapolation (?!): have the user enter percentages by which they believe average wages will increase for each year.
New Parameters: an entire table of percentages
Pros: ~1% chance the user knows something very specific that the trustee report doesn’t account for
Cons: 99% chance it gives users a new way to make horrible mistakes
Bendpoints and COLA
Further investigation needed. See tables below.
(the above is based on a Word Document by @supjohn)
Other Details to incorporate above:
https://cfb-public.slack.com/archives/CG08M4KN3/p1575418598247600
How SSA Detailed Calculator app, called AnyPIA helps users do projections, in screenshots: https://cfb-public.slack.com/archives/CG08M4KN3/p1562009569050800?thread_ts=1562003269.042200&cid=CG08M4KN3
Patterns we've observed between SSA Detail Calculator updates and SSA Trustee Reports
Updates are roughly twice-per year
Whiteboard discussion of above projection tactics
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/283343/70109670-9e5bd280-161a-11ea-9abb-d8bbf3e1ebe7.png)
https://cfb-public.slack.com/archives/CG08M4KN3/p1563925431005000
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/283343/70105900-3a341100-1610-11ea-9772-73a947807804.png)
Page 16 from Trustees report 2019.2
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/283343/70109820-19bd8400-161b-11ea-8b32-381dead46fb4.png)
Page 99 from Trustees report 2019.2
https://cfb-public.slack.com/archives/CG08M4KN3/p1563926600006400
![image](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/283343/70105841-035dfb00-1610-11ea-97d7-2198de9b8667.png)