Repo of replication materials for "Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Hierarchical Case-Control Approach." This is the final version control repository without data output (too large for Github). For full replication dataverse, see: .

The estimation procedure described in this article is provided as a standalone package called extremeR: https://github.com/cjbarrie/extremeR. The package has a standalone website, including tutorial run-through at: https://extremer.info/.

We use three main sources of data. These are all in the folder "data/".

1. The principal raw data come leaked recruitment records. These are provided (with names, address etc.) as "master_data.csv."
2. There are then three data sets of recruitment records merged with survey and administrative data. For all countries, this file is "matchadata_isisall.csv"; for Egypt "matchdata_isisegysc.csv"; and for Tunisia "matchdata_isistunsc.csv".
3. The final dataset, "mena_pops.csv" is a list of population figures needed for the estimation procedure.

For full descriptions of each variable and how they were coded, see the Appendix of the published article. Below, we detail short descriptions of each variable for ease of reference.

Here's a markdown table with two columns, one for the variable name, and one for a description of the variable:

• Software used for final replication:

platform       aarch64-apple-darwin20      
arch           aarch64                     
os             darwin20                    
system         aarch64, darwin20           
status                                     
major          4                           
minor          2.3                         
year           2023                        
month          03                          
day            15                          
svn rev        83980                       
language       R                           
version.string R version 4.2.3 (2023-03-15)
nickname       Shortstop Beagle     

• Hardware used for final replication:

      Model Name: MacBook Pro
      Model Identifier: MacBookPro18,3
      Model Number: Z15G0026LB/A
      Chip: Apple M1 Pro
      Total Number of Cores: 8 (6 performance and 2 efficiency)
      Memory: 32 GB
      System Firmware Version: 8419.80.7
      OS Loader Version: 8419.80.7
      Serial Number (system): C3YH39D4FF
      Hardware UUID: FA2D6AD0-E4D6-54E5-95DF-F4BC76BDA020
      Provisioning UDID: 00006000-001C41020A29801E
      Activation Lock Status: Enabled

• Processing time for final analysis:
  • 000_simulation_study_round1.R : ~12 hours
  • 000_simulation_study_round2.R : ~12 hours
  • 01_analysis_egypt.R: ~3 hours
  • 02_analysis_tunisia.R: ~8 hours
  • 03b_analysis_bird.R: ~47 hours

• ├── 000_simulation_study_round1.R : Runs first set of simulations
• ├── 000_simulation_study_round2.R : Runs second set of simulations
• ├── 01_analysis_egypt.R : "Worm's Eye" model estimation for Egypt
• ├── 02_analysis_tunisia.R : "Worm's Eye" model estimation for Tunisia
• ├── 03a_cleaning_bird.R : "Bird's Eye" model estimation data preparation
• ├── 03b_analysis_bird.R: "Bird's Eye" model estimation

├── 000_simulation_study_round1.R
├── 000_simulation_study_round2.R
├── 01_analysis_egypt.R
├── 02_analysis_tunisia.R
├── 03a_cleaning_bird.R
├── 03b_analysis_bird.R
├── README.md
├── bayesian-extreme.Rproj
├── bird.stan
├── data
│   ├── master_dataset.csv
│   ├── matchdata_isisall.csv
│   ├── matchdata_isisegysc.csv
│   ├── matchdata_isistunsc.csv
│   └── mena_pops.csv
├── egypt.stan
├── generated_data
│   ├── Bird
│   ├── Egypt
│   ├── Sims
│   └── Tunisia
├── plots
│   ├── Bird
│   ├── Egypt
│   ├── Sims
│   └── Tunisia
├── shapefiles/
├── tables
│   ├── profiles_bird.tex
│   ├── profiles_egy.tex
│   └── profiles_tun.tex
├── tunisia.stan
└── utils
    ├── monitornew.R
    ├── monitorplot.R
    ├── utils.R
    └── utils_plot.R