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elo_tennis's Introduction

Historical ATP Ranking using the Elo rating system

After reading FiveThirtyEight's piece about how Serena Williams stacks up against all-time female greats using the Elo rating system, I attempted to apply the same rating system to men's tennis with Python. FiveThirtyEight applied the elo rating system to men's tennis as well.

The Elo Rating system was developed by Arpad Elo originally to estimate the strength of chess players. Each player's elo rating is based on their prior results. When two chess players enter a match, the system can calculate the expected outcome using each player's rating and then updates each player's rating once the match has concluded.

Mechanics and assumptions

Top Ten Elo Ratings (as of September 2015)

Rank Player Name Peak Elo Peak Elo Date
1 Novak Djokovic 2538 2015-05-24
2 Roger Federer 2536 2007-02-26
3 John McEnroe 2501 1985-04-01
4 Rafael Nadal 2495 2013-09-30
5 Bjorn Borg 2483 1980-08-11
6 Ivan Lendl 2467 1986-03-24
7 Boris Becker 2390 1990-03-05
8 Andy Murray 2382 2009-04-12
9 Pete Sampras 2381 1994-05-09
10 Jimmy Connors 2372 1978-10-31

Taking these top ten players, we will then look at their respective elo ratings throughout their careers.

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