Probabilistic Analysis of Ventures

Business ventures are undertaken by investing capital in projects with the expectation of a profit. Each venture has a probability distribution of returns and a business generally has multiple active ventures at any time.

The goal of this project is to determine how the breakeven probability of the portfolio varies with the number of ventures and the probability distributions of individual ventures.

The Jupyter Notebook consists of the following sections:

• Variation in the breakeven probability of the portfolio with the number of ventures
• Variation in the breakeven probability of the portfolio with the probability of success of each venture
• Variation in the breakeven probability of the portfolio with both variables
• Insights