Hello. GREAT JOB first of all.
I installed all the needed packages, but I still get this error and I can't figure out why. Could you please give me some advice? I run Python3 on MacOS Catalina. It calculates correctly all the variables of the equations, but then it looks like it has a problem saving the image file.

Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/Users/PFB/Downloads/covid-19_italy-master/covid19_italy.py", line 303, in
plt.savefig('img_italia/'+str(date)+"_1.png",dpi=200,bbox_inches='tight')
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/pyplot.py", line 723, in savefig
res = fig.savefig(*args, **kwargs)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/figure.py", line 2203, in savefig
self.canvas.print_figure(fname, **kwargs)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/backend_bases.py", line 2098, in print_figure
result = print_method(
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/backends/backend_agg.py", line 535, in print_png
with cbook.open_file_cm(filename_or_obj, "wb") as fh:
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/contextlib.py", line 113, in enter
return next(self.gen)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/init.py", line 418, in open_file_cm
fh, opened = to_filehandle(path_or_file, mode, True, encoding)
File "/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.8/lib/python3.8/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/init.py", line 403, in to_filehandle
fh = open(fname, flag, encoding=encoding)
FileNotFoundError: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: 'img_italia/2020-03-28_1.png'

Mysterious

$ python.exe covid19_italy.py
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "covid19_italy.py", line 8, in <module>
    import geopandas as gpd
  File "C:\Python37\lib\site-packages\geopandas\__init__.py", line 5, in <module>
    from geopandas.io.file import read_file  # noqa
  File "C:\Python37\lib\site-packages\geopandas\io\file.py", line 6, in <module>
    import fiona
  File "C:\Python37\lib\site-packages\fiona\__init__.py", line 87, in <module>
    from fiona.collection import BytesCollection, Collection
  File "C:\Python37\lib\site-packages\fiona\collection.py", line 9, in <module>
    from fiona.ogrext import Iterator, ItemsIterator, KeysIterator
ImportError: DLL load failed: The specified procedure could not be found.

Buongiorno Alberto,
sto effettuando alcuni studi sui modelli matematici che simulano l'evoluzione del covid.
Nel tuo codice, mi trovo che nel calcolo del fit del modello SIR, vengono passati i dati della colonna
"totale casi", invece dovrebbero essere passati quelli della colonna "totale positivi".
Ovvero:
Popolazione = S+I+R
In questo caso stiamo trascurando i recovered, che dovrebbero essere pari ai guariti + i decessi.
Pertanto le equazioni differenziali non vengono rispettate.
Ti torna?
Grazie dell'attenzione