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grgmiller avatar grgmiller commented on June 12, 2024

There are also certain cases where our calculated net generation is greater than the reported gross generation. We should investigate these instances and adjust our methodology accordingly.

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grgmiller avatar grgmiller commented on June 12, 2024

So the gross to net conversion that we implemented in #107 still has some bugs that we need to try and fix. Our most recent update prioritized ensuring that the total net generation in a month after a conversion matched the total monthly net generation from EIA-923, and ignored how this would affect the shape of the generation. However, in certain cases, this approach was leading to hourly net generation values that were a) massively negative (i.e. negative hundreds of MW), b) larger than the plant's nameplate capacity, or c) set to zero in all hours.

Trying to achieve both objectives might not be feasible: We either have totals that match exactly but have hourly profiles that may be unrealistic, or we create more realistic profiles but the calculated net generation will not match the EIA-923 net generation.

We currently try and calculate net generation values based on subplant-months, but there is a question about how much we can trust the EIA-923 data at that level of granularity. In some cases, it seems that sometimes net generation may be reported in the incorrect month. In other cases, especially for combined cycle plants, the generation may be recorded for a different part of the plant.

Thus, we may want to calculate a plant-year average factor and use that to shift generation in all months. The month-specific values might not match up with EIA's numbers, but at the annual level, the total net generation should match.

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grgmiller avatar grgmiller commented on June 12, 2024

Another thing we could try:
Keep the same assignment hierarchy, but filter out shift values that would cause net generation to be > 1.05* nameplate and < -50.
Also filter out ratios that are < 0 or would cause net generation to be > 1.05 nameplate.

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