Opponent Deck Prediction about hearthstone-deck-tracker HOT 6 CLOSED

Somewhere in 2/3:

• Display chances of the opponent having cards next turn (hand + next draw)

Somewhere in step 4 or later:

• detect that the opponent probably does not have a certain card on hand if he did not play it on a turn where he would've gotten good value for it. So if we had a 4/4, a 3/1 and a 2/1 on the board on turn 4, but the opponent-druid did not swipe, chances are he does not have one in hand.

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.

That last one is very good, but I suspect extremely difficult to implement. It's pretty obvious in the Swipe example, but for it to apply across the spectrum of all cards we'd need to basically build a game state analyzer that determines the optimal play in a given scenario. I'd say that's much further down the line.

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.

Sorry, I'm new to github, is there a beta version of this feature available for download?

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.

A paper came out describing how to predict cards. That's the way to go... predict cards, not entire decks.

https://cdn.elie.net/talks/I-am-a-legend-defcon-22-slides-final.pdf

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.

I've read that paper and some of the materials associated to it and my understanding is that you can predict the next card while his turn is active. This means that you cannot do anything while he is playing that card and the n-gram makes sense only after he played a card. This looks more like an exercise than a useful feature.

https://www.elie.net/blog/hearthstone/predicting-hearthstone-opponent-deck-using-machine-learning#.VACASfmSx8E

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.

http://www.elie.net/blog/hearthstone/i-am-a-legend-hacking-hearthstone-with-machine-learning-defcon-talk-wrap-up

Why we are not releasing our tool?
One thing you won’t see posted, however, is a software tool that we promised to release during our Defcon presentation. Following Defcon we had a series of conversations with the Hearthstone team about our research — apparently the email that I sent prior to Defcon didn’t reach the right person. They like our research on game/cards balance and are very enthusiastic and supportive about it.

On the other hand, they were very concerned that our real time dashboard that can predict your opponent’s deck will break the game balance by giving that person (that is, whoever has the tool) an unfair advantage. They also expressed concern that such a tool makes the game less fun by taking away some of the decision-making from the player. It was a difficult decision — I invested a lot of our time building our real-time dashboard tool with Celine — but we agree with the Hearthstone team and will not release the tool publicly.

So this is probably no longer a good idea (for this project).

from hearthstone-deck-tracker.