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<p>Fifteen years ago, I initiated a time-honored tradition among my colleagues in kernel development at Sun: shortly after the first of every year, we would get together at <a href="http://www.theosteriaavanti.com/">our favorite local restaurant</a> to form predictions for the coming year.  We made one-year, three-year and six-year predictions for both our technologies and more broadly for the industry.  We did this for nine years running &#8212; from 2000 to 2008 inclusive &#8212; and came to know the annual ritual as a play on the restaurant name:  Predicteria.
<p>I have always been interested in our past notions of the future (<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/everything-back-future-ii-got-hilariously-wrong-about-2015-according-293272">hoverboards and self-lacing shoes</a> FTW!), and looking back now at nearly a decade of our predictions has led me to an inescapable (and perhaps obvious) conclusion: <b>predictions tell you more about the present than the future</b>.  That is, predictions reflect the zeitgeist of the day &#8212; both in substance and in tone: in good years, people predict halcyon days; in bad ones, the apocalypse.  And when a particular company or technology happened to be in the news or otherwise on the collective mind, predictions tended to be centered around it: it was often the case that several people would predict that a certain company would be acquired or that a certain technology would flourish &#8212; or perish.  (Let the record reflect that <a href="http://www.itworld.com/article/2702259/data-center/hp-to-replace-itanium-with-x86-in-its-nonstop-server.html">the demise of Itanium</a> was accurately predicted many times over.)

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