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canyon289 avatar canyon289 commented on August 19, 2024

Thanks for the report. For this one either bernoulli or binomial will work as a bernoulli is a single trial and binomial is multiple trials. Under the hood pymc will convert them to the same calculation if multiple bernoullis are observed

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OmriTreidel avatar OmriTreidel commented on August 19, 2024

Thanks for the quick reply @canyon289.

If this is the case there must be some other error since the the HDI of theta is [0.037, 0.27] which is very far the exact solution Beta(alpha = 3 +1, beta=5 - 3 + 1) = Beta(4, 3) which has its maximum at 0.6.

When running the code block I mentioned above the posterior of theta looks just like Beta(4, 3)

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OmriTreidel avatar OmriTreidel commented on August 19, 2024

I'm happy to make a PR if you like

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